Wednesday
Jun072006

Wisdom from Eddie Murphy: Buying in a Falling Market

I can't help but think of that moment in the movie Trading Places, Eddy Murphy is trying to explain why the market is going to keep going down. He doesn't offer an explanation of the exact moment to buy, but he can explain that it's not right now. The US Equity markets are falling. Technology stocks are currently out of favor. I’m working on a list of value tech stocks that I will buy when I think we’re near the bottom. I know tech stocks usually bottom in the summer but I might get them ...

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Monday
Jun052006

Note to Democrats: Please Don't Take the Bait on Gay Marriage

I posted this on the Democratic National Committee Blog:Let the Republicans hang themselves with the gay marriage issue. I have to think the American people will see through this tactic. Democratic leaders would be smart to keep their mouths shut or just say, "What is more important? Rising inflation, the budget deficit, fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and terrorism at home or fighting a war against American homosexuals? In states where the majority of people really care, gay marriage is already banned. Besides, gay and lesbian groups have nothing to fear from a constitutional amendment that ...

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Friday
Jun022006

Tax Dodge for New Treasury Secretary Paulson: How to Avoid Nearly a Hundred Million in Taxes by Taking a Government Job

Paulson gets to avoid nearly a hundred million in taxes for taxing his new job. Now here's a good reason to take a government job: a beautiful tax dodge. Sadly, if you were thinking about state, local or legislative service, tax relief only applies to employees of the Executive Branch.Article from Forbes.com ...

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Friday
Jun022006

Portfolio Trades: Telmex (TMX) - so cheap

Added to my Telefonos de Mexico (TMX) position. I am now up to a 1/2 position. This stock is just so darn cheap. It has a p/e of 8.5 (forward p/e of 8.1) and a dividend yield of 3.6%. I like those stats. Why is Telmex cheap? The company has a fantastic monopoly with plenty of government protections. Those protections are at risk. While that is true, deregulation happens slowly (especially in Mexico). Carlos Slim and Telmex are both important to the Mexican government and economy. I do no think the ...

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Thursday
Jun012006

Inconvenient Truth: Movie Review

I saw the movie. I saw Al Gore's slide show at a conference on philanthropy and climate change in February. I've been to the website. I have been deluged with newspaper columns on the film. I have heard two separate features on NPR about Al Gore and An Inconvenient Truth. Suffice it to say I've been satiated with the topic lately.I won't say much but my recommendation is as follows: See An Inconvenient Truth. It's nothing like Fahrenheit 9/11. It treats the watcher like a thinking person and provides information in a way that is both respectful ...

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Thursday
Jun012006

Trading Activity for June 1.

I cannot give an explanation of what each one of these means but I will log the trades. Feel free to ask questions in the comments - I will respond.Sold out and closed long S&P 500 Futures position I put on and wrote about yesterday.Continued liquidation of closed-end bond funds (most of these positions are fairly illiquid)Covered short position in Sept '07 Libor Futures.Increased position in out of the money put spreads on 30-year treasuries.Naked shorted GOOG (Google) Jan 2008, 250 strike puts (LEAP). (yes, I find value in GOOG at that point)Traded around the strangle in EEM ...

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Wednesday
May312006

End of Month Trades: S&P Futures, DELL, GG, COP , Bond Futures

I'm Going out long US equities as a short term trade for end of month. Often we see these reversals after a big fall the first few days of a new month as asset allocators move into (the newly cheaper equities). I bought June S&P 500 (ESM5) futures position at 1265.50. My plan was to play it for about 5-10 points. I ended up selling out of half the position at 1270.50 just a few minutes later. Now I'm waiting to sell the rest tomorrow into the buying I expect. Other recent trades: I continue to ...

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Monday
May292006

The Da Vinci Code: Movie Review

If you read the book I don’t think you need to see The Da Vinci Code. Since I found out there was going to be a movie I avoided reading the book. I’m glad I did. I think if I had I would have fallen asleep. While I found the plot and its twists to be very entertaining, my date, who had read the book, fell asleep on several occasions. Even the 48 ounce Diet Coke we shared couldn’t keep her in the land of the conscious. The plot is ...

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Friday
May262006

Lightening Up on Closed-End Bond Funds. Buying FORD MOTOR CAP TR II.

I am using the recent rally in bonds as a chance to sell off some of my closed-end bond funds. I think I'll have the chance to buy them again after the yield curve steepens again.Other interesting positions:I'm staying long Natural Gas FuturesCovered the rest of the long British Pound /short EURO (GBP/EUR) position a couple days ago. I still like the carry (GBP pays high rates than EUR) but it had moved to my target of 0.6800. ...

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Tuesday
May232006

Watching Intel (INTC): The Time Will Come to Wade Into The Pool.

At some point Intel INTC is a buy. This stock is being sold because it is losing market share to AMD and management is not impressing portfolio managers and analysts with earnings downgrades and their lack of a good turnaround plan. The company is out of favor with the street. Intel is a big company full of smart people with some great marketing and production arrangements. CEO Paul Otellini (or some new management) will get scared and figure out how to turn this situation around in the next 6-24 months. And buying when the ...

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