David Neubert Homepage

Goldman Misses The Point: Equities Aren't Cheap Bonds Are Insanely Expensive

2012-03-21T13:49:26Z

Goldman portfolio strategists Peter Oppenheimer and Matthieu Walterspiler are out with a report getting big of attention. The report presents the generationally important bullish case for stocks relative to bonds.

I'm worried this report will be the case for everyone to go 100% into equities and then get clobbered when the bond bubble bursts. I agree that equities are stupidly undervalued relative to government bonds but it's only because EVERYTHING is at an historic low valuation relative to government bonds.

Kapitall in Barrons

2012-03-12T19:04:19Z

When students ask me what books to read to learn about investing, I tell them to start reading Barron’s. I started reading Barron’s in college. Yes, I was a serious finance nerd then too. It is my favorite and most educational financial publication. I am old enough to remember the first Barron's online brokerage survey 17 years ago. I never dreamed that when I saw the first list I would be part of a team that would create a broker from scratch that would be included ON the list. For me, this is a thrilling moment and the biggest milestone at Kapitall so far.

Made My Annual Donation to Wikipedia Today

2011-11-15T19:40:47Z

Lighting Round on Seattle Fox News Q13

2011-11-03T19:07:51Z

Bill and Lilly didn't let me take a breath today. In five minutes we discuss: Greek debt default and politics, European bank contagion, Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party, saving money on your cable bill, my U.S. economic forecast and Bank of America's debit card fees fiasco.

See today's Finances with Neubert.

How I Am Investing in Turbulent Times

2011-09-14T04:24:00Z

It’s been an interesting couple of weeks. I spent the first week after the U.S. debt downgrade trading like crazy and living out my prediction that things are never as bad as they seem. Click more to see a roundup of all I've been saying about it at Kapitall.

Stocks for the Bernanke Money Printing Machine

2011-09-14T03:39:15Z

You’ve been asking about the US debt downgrade by S&P.

First, remember that rating agencies are private companies with private opinions. They may be more informed than the big mouth down the block but what they issue are opinions not facts.

S&P is the same company that rated all the sub-prime debt packages AAA. Those who listened to them lost billions when losses and defaults came in those packaged AAA (risk free) loans.

Smart people who ignored the rating agency opinions and didn't invest in "AAA" mortgages did quite well during the meltdown. Many even made money.

I'm not listening to them now and neither are investors like Warren Buffet. I'm not listening to them now and neither are investors like Warren Buffet.

Companies Hoarding Cash

2011-08-15T19:18:00Z

Where will all the cash hoards on U.S. corporate balance sheets turn up? Too often companies with large cash holdings blow it on wasteful acquisitions rather than return it to shareholders. However, there is so much cash on U.S. corporate balance sheets that it will end up in investors pockets somehow. Companies will either give it directly to thier own shareholders via dividends and buybacks or they will spread it around the market as a whole (donating it to other shareholders) through acquisitions.

It's appropriate that nasdaq.com found my comments on the matter at Kapitall. After all, the companies with the famously largest cash positions (Microsoft, Apple, Cisco) are also the largest companies listed on the NASDAQ Exchange.

Disclosure: I own Apple and Microsoft. I am short in-the-money puts on Cisco.

Ben Bernanke: Thanks for All The Bubbles

2011-08-09T22:26:23Z

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement that it will keep interest rates near zero until mid-2013 basically will create a bubble in everything except U.S. dollars. Where will you see bubbles? Stocks, gold, bonds, Asian currencies, commodities, Swiss Francs, old cars, collectibles, worn-out shoes, sand and just about anything

What Does the Debt Downgrade Mean For The Average Person

2011-08-08T21:40:56Z

I was invited to Q13 Fox News again today. I was there to talk about the Standard and Poors downgrade of U.S. debt.

It's hard to notice, but I actually say that I think the markets will be up by the end of the day. Luckily, I didn't say equity or bond. I was right on the bond part and totally wrong with the equity market. I went on at 7:15 PDT when the Dow was down 211 points. Later, the Dow Jones Industrials closed down over 600 points. I stand by my prediction that the debt downgrade will be uninteresting in the financial markets in a year but still very political.

Oh and what did I trade?

Why the Market is Really Down - European Troubles

2011-08-05T18:23:15Z

The Dow closed down over 500 points yesterday and I’m getting lots of questions about it. There are several factors at work. But the most important is the dollar going up...