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Tuesday
Jul112006

My Portfolio Trading Activity: Long Yen. Covering Russell Rebalance Trade

Russell Rebalnce Closeout:
Closed out more of the Russell Rebalance Trade from June 30. Except for residual positions in Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Warner Music Group (WMG) I have closed out all my positions.
Sold HPQ
Sold AMAT (Applied Materials is starting to look cheap and is THE leader in its field.  I'm looking for an entry point soon)
Sold AIG
Bought back second 1/3 of LVS
Bought 1/3 of WMG

Long Japanese Yen
In addition to the above stock trades I also increased my long Japanese Yen/Short USD position (AT 114..   Right now, the interest rates set by the Central Bank in Japan are nearly zero.  The economy is growing there, unemployment is nearing 4%, the banks are cleaned up their balance sheets and the stock market is stable. 

Two events can cause a significant rally in the Yen and the expense of the dollar:

1. At some point this year maybe soon, the world will become convinced that the interest rates are going higher in Japan.  At that point I think both the stock market will rally and the Yen will rise.

2. The Chinese have a significant revaluation of their currency, the Yuan.  This would bring all the Asian currencies with it.

The problem with this trade is that the difference between US and Japanese interest rates is 5.00%.  That means that is a back of the envelope calculation means that with the yen/dollar rate at 114 it cost around 0.5 yen per month in carry*.

*For those unfamiliar with the term "carry trade," I will use the definition found on Freebuck.com.
"Carry trade -- The speculation strategy that borrows an asset at one interest rate, sells the asset, then invests those funds into a different asset that generates a higher interest rate yield. Profit is acquired by the difference between the cost of the borrowed asset and the yield on the purchased asset."
However in this case of long yen/short dollar the carry works AGAINST the trade and waiting costs money.

Disclosure:
Nothing in this blog is meant to be specific financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.  I do not give investment advice.  Do your own research.  Do not rely on anything in this weblog to make investment decisions.  I do not log all my trades here. I only describe or mention those that I think might be interesting. Consult an investment professional familiar with your specific financial situation before buying or selling any security.

I continue to hold Hewlett Packard. (HPQ in a ratio 3/5 with 32.5 strike July Puts)
I am short WMG and LVS.
I do not own Applied Materials but am considering buying soon.
I am long December and September Japanese Yen Globex Futures

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